Spelunking the Universe
Posts tagged life
Rico Examines “Evolution and Economics”
Aug 30th
So I’ve been reading Richard Dawkin’s “The Greatest Show on Earth”, interestingly for a guy who is constantly described as condescending and downright mean his book thus far has been really well thought out and pleasant. He’s barely mentioned faith at all and seemed to make an effort to separate faithful from “those people” (Creationists/Young Earthers). He seems genuinely concerned with people trying to discount Physics and about a half dozen other sciences as being “other forms of faith”. But I digress, that is not what this post is about 
.
In the book Dawkin’s mentions something about rats, how through selective breeding in a matter of 30 or so generations (or even quite a bit less) you can generate rats who have far better dental than those not selected specifically to enhance those traits. Likewise you can make rats who get really crappy teeth fairly quickly. He mentions in this chapter, “Why if man can make a rat with awesome teeth can nature not? One would assume that long surviving healthy teeth would do nothing but enhance the survival rates of the hose animal.” Which was interestingly timed because I was thinking the same thing.
I had been wondering about all the monsters that folks create for movies, these apex predators with amazing senses, huge muscular structures, good bones, and many cases wings because obviously flying is badass. One would assume that these creatures should be inevitable in life, likewise the question arises even on a smaller scale, why if Human’s have gotten these fairly awesome brains have other animals not jumped on the bandwagon? They are sexy organic computers that have helped us to create super cool things. One would think that any animal would benefit, much like the rats from the fancy teeth.
To this question, that he assumed (rightly) would form from the discussion of that rat experiment, he responded with an Economics quote that I’ll paraphrase “There is no such thing as a free lunch.” The Calcium necessary for those teeth must come from somewhere, in lab rats it is simply supplemented with a seemingly endless supply of nutrient rich food. But in the wild the Rat would have to get that calcium from somewhere. It would be taking it away from the rest of it’s bone structure, or in females from the milk production, or any other process in the body that needs that Calcium. In the end, having slightly worse teeth for the wild rats might be beneficial because the calcium they’d have used in those teeth can then be used for other operations in the body that may actually extend their life even further.
Which brings me back to the human brain thing. I’ve read, long before this book, about the reason why humans are so gung-ho on fat and high calorie diets. Obviously being warm blooded is a big part of it, but beyond being walking waste machines (we do burn through energy really fast), we also have incredibly nutrient hungry brains. These big grey batches of yogurt are very big on the high fat high calorie diets that we take in, it makes them happier than a clam (both of which I don’t think actually feel happy, but you get my point). At a point in the history of our particular branch of the animal Kingdom there was a period of very high fertility in the land where our ancestors lived. This provided them with the resources they needed for a mutation of the brain to actually work, before that point HAD the event occurred the animal carrying that new brain would have not had the food supply to support the new infrastructure and would have likely died off.
It’s hardly a give-in, by stuffing animals full of vitamins and minerals for centuries we have no certainty that they’d suddenly get awesome brains and be able to help us fight the inevitable ape uprising. However it makes me wonder how many times in the past a really neat strain of an animal has arisen and died off because it couldn’t support the new workings of its body. Requiring perhaps more vitamin C than was available, or Vitamin D, or Calcium, or Iron. The only thing killing off it’s otherwise (subjectively) superior body was the environment not supplying it with the funds (so to speak) it needed to succeed.
We, long ago, hit a point where we begin a cyclical system of altering our environment to meet the ever (however slowly) changing needs of our bodies. We’ve reached the point now that any mutation we have can likely be met with environmental changes to help support it, providing us with an infinitely many versions of humans that can survive…at least hypothetically.
It’s an amazing moment personally, wondering just what has been lost or what could be gained in the animal kingdom given a sustained period of fruitfulness, however I find that the odds of this happening with humans around is quite a bit lower than it once was (we’ll utterly consume any place that begins to thrive). At any rate, it’s a neat bit of info. If anyone was ever wondering why animals don’t get X, the above is the basic reasoning. Every mutation requires resources and if those resources are taken away from even (for the moment) more important bodily functions that mutation will fail. It is only the mutations that result in a slightly longer lifespan (and thusly more chances to breed) that lead onto new strains of the animal, and those strains will only survive for as long as their needs are met by the environment. They could still vanish if the environment suddenly changes and their “inferior” cousins could end up returning to power.
Bah…I’ll end up bantering on about how neat this is to me. So I’ll just leave it at that. More to come I’m sure.
College is like a Frat Boy…
Aug 14th
…in the sense that it’s single mindedly trying little more than to screw you. Though admittedly the college is looking to screw you financially, which for some is a whole lot more dastardly than a one night stand with “Chad” (Yeah we all know what you really want Chad).
College tuition has been routinely increasing at a rate far higher than that of inflation (or any reasonable estimate of actual future costs). You might think to yourself, “Awesome! Now the professors are finally making the amount of money they deserve!”, but unfortunately this is not the case at all. This money isn’t going towards professors, it is going towards the amenities of the school, new pools, new gyms, random sculptures, and largely to the school President.
You can think of the School President as your own personal Lawmaker, they don’t actually do anything that benefits you but they get paid obscene amounts of money. If you question them on this, as my college did (Western Washington University) they will tell you that “The cost is a small price to pay for their expertise.” Which is entirely poppycock (a term I don’t use nearly enough), you could teach basically any person how to run the college with the same level of efficiency and at a fraction of the cost. Considering how much most people make this would still be a huge increase in pay for them.
Colleges are becoming, if they haven’t already, resorts. These institutions no longer have the graduation of their students in mind and it’s not even a priority, the worse a student does the longer they stay and the more they invest. The college has no motivation to lower prices because student loans are handed out with reckless abandon, you might ask yourself why they are so easy to get. The answer to that is simple and falls back on my previous topic of politics.
Both Federal Student Loans and Private Loans are non dischargeable in bankruptcy. This means that if you go into debt trying to get an education you are screwed for life unless that education suddenly earns you a job that can pay off the loans (Protip: It won’t). Why would such laws be put into place instead of requiring loan agencies to actually vet their clients? Well simply put it gives them complete control over the situation, they can hand out a million dollars this year and know with certainty that they’ll be able to milk it out of someone, be it the person they give the loan to or the family of that person, or if in the future that person dies then to that person’s kids. The problem lies in the logic that there will always be money to steal from somewhere.
College no longer exists for the same reason it once did, much like medicine cannot properly function as a for profit industry (as it has shown almost across the board) so too can the educational industry not function as a for profit industry. The idea that any society would let either fall into that model is so outlandish that I wouldn’t believe it in a story had it not already existed in reality.
Colleges are going to start failing, perhaps not all at once, but certainly all will if this current model does not change. It is another bubble formed from multiple levels of failure from the public level all the way to the political level. A perfect storm of greed, ignorance, and greedy ignorance (I see what I did there). The good news is there is no reason to worry about it, because too many people will fight for it to not change that it will stay the same.
Instead just make sure that you save up for your children, that if necessary you send them to a college outside of the country. Don’t take out loans, don’t let your friends or families take out loans, and make sure not to give this new model of College Resorts be a successful one, it is a blight on our society and it must be killed with one of the few tools left “Financial Atrophy”.
I would like to cite NakedLaw. They mention much of what I have above with sources and with eloquence that only a lawyer can provide. Though much of this was discussed Ad Nauseum in the school newspaper during my years in college. The President of the school basically (using flowery terms) called the entire school population ignorant and made sure they knew that only he could lead with any level of quality 
.
(Which was bull: Almost nobody on this planet can do something that anyone else couldn’t do with a fairly unchanging amount of training (10,000 hours). The trick is having the money to have the time to do the training . It’s little more than that. For those wondering you have 5,840 hours each year of time you spend awake. The reason most experts become experts very young in life is that they most likely don’t have a job, not necessarily because they are youthful.)
Cooler Heads Prevail
Aug 9th
I will only touch on this lightly since the man in question doesn’t deserve even the slightest bit of recognition in life (a life that by all estimates has largely been wasted it seems), but the idea that Cooler Heads Prevail is not one that I believe to be true.
In politics it is the most eccentric and moronic that tend to prevail, they succeed in crushing any hope for lower and middle class Americans and do their hardest to be certain that only things that will directly benefit them work out. Because in the end, the hottest heads follow one motto in life “The rest of the world matters less than I do.”
What might I be talking about you ask? Well to summarize what happened today on the phone with a man over a half-century (closer to 3/4’s) old was this: Man Calls 911 for Incorrect Subway Order. I managed to save another Floridian from this situation by not letting him make the same foolish mistake, but what did I prevail at? Really in the end I just supported his poor attitude, he will continue in his ever shortening life (for once I appreciate mortality) to be a bitter and impatient human being. He has learned nothing from this altercation but that ignorance is not only bliss but beneficial, that people with slightly more patience and (I say this without pride as it is hard not to be) far more intelligence will keep him alive, they’ll keep him fed, clothed, paid, and likely be the only reason he continues to exist up until the point that not even the greatest advances in technology and science can save his tainted being from the dark abyss where even Satan would not welcome him.
So I think, that is that. I’ll be over it by morning I hope, it merely bothers me that in our country it is the loudest and most foolish that have the greatest drive to make change. It is almost as if understanding the odds of voting or passing change causes intelligent people (Which this time I will not pool myself in with) to remain idle and apathetic, realizing that no amount of reasoning can bring them above the cave man stick swinging reality that has kept the US moving since the Founding Fathers lived and certainly after they died.
Just as a random US aside, what is it that you think Taft is most famous for? What has he accomplished that no other president has? Well I hate to spoil an assumption of your answer but it isn’t that he was overweight, yes being a President in the 300lb range (I believe that is about where he was) is quite a feat and not something I plan to accomplish but the more important information about him is that he was not only the President in his life, but also the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court (Not at the same time), no other President has done that. He was also the President that had the Oval Office built in the West Wing, what has become an iconic structural piece and the name of a popular television show (The West Wing, not Oval Office, never watched it regardless).
It seems like a random question but what I’m trying to get at is that, the most popular information about this guy was his weight. A completely trivial television centric piece of knowledge, yes I get it the dude was fat, but how does that even compare to the nearly impossible task of not only taking top spot in the Executive Branch in his life time but also the Judicial One. He was shooting for a political freaking Hat trick (a term I only recently learned the meaning of. The advantage of working next to a sports nut) and it is mentioned so little that I had to find out by reading a book specifically about the government, it was not once mentioned in AP courses about Government and US History (would have stood out to me).
Final note, It is easily arguable that Taft actually did accomplish a Hat Trick, he was quite an accomplished fellow in his life. But I’m not here to fondle over the guy, I just thought the information was neat and it somewhat fit into my topic.
A Waste of Time
Dec 10th
It is a term that gets thrown around so much that it got me thinking. Following off the theme of the last post my question is this: Is anything you do not a waste of time?
Perhaps it is just a matter of the glass being half empty, half full, or perhaps just twice as big as it should be. But isn’t everything a waste of time?
Every book you read, every thing you do, every mark you make, each of these things will be null in respect to you once you die. Every person you influence in any manner will also die and with them the events become null. Given humanities overall inability to separate from ancient fantasy I have doubts that humanity will ever make it off the Earth. We are likely to see cycles of intellectual growth, great destruction caused by fantastical ignorance, and then a recovery period. This will extend the time and resources needed to reach a colony in space and just might push us up until the big end.
That big end for the Earth of course being when the sun expands and swallows it. Every single activity ever committed by a person will be scorched to cinders and yanked into the center of the sun. In that moment every single action of humanity becomes moot. For the exception of maybe some satellites that are well out of harms way but it is only a matter of time before something destroys them.
So really isn’t everything a waste of time? Then again how do you properly use time? Who is the judge of what is a constructive use of time? These are questions that so frequently seem to be treated as self evident when the answers are hardly so.
Why shouldn’t we be here?
Nov 18th
People often ask the question of “Why are we here?” Which I believe I’ve touched on before but most recently it popped a similar thought into my head. To be succinct “Why Not?” Of the massive number of possible formula’s for universes that could possibly exist each has the same chance of existing as every other universe.
Mathematics, Physics, Biology, and every other science that I don’t fully understand are based specifically within our own universe. It is one of those tautological “It is because it is.” kind of situations. So we are no more special than any other possible universe, sure we have life as we know it, but that is a self fulfilling setup. Anytime we find life it’ll be life as we know it because we have found it and thus we know it.
Life as we know it has changed over the entire span of human existence and was different before we existed. Life as we know it will continue to change and if we discovered another universe (or even another planet) with different life following rules that we do not fully understand we will now have a new understanding of life as we know it.
All that separates life in this universe from another universe that may or may not exist from being under our oh so wonderful “life as we know it” tag is us finding it.
Because of this I see nothing special about this universe which makes me wonder. So it isn’t a question of why we are here, there is no reason why we shouldn’t be here. Not all why questions are necessarily ones that have an actual answer. Just like “Why do people generate more energy than the sun.” I can’t take credit for that revelation, Richard Dawkins had a similar one “Why are Unicorns Hollow.” Just because you can ask it doesn’t necessarily mean it is a valid or important question.
My question isn’t necessarily better. I realize the irony or hypocrisy in me asking it, but I am finding it odd to assume that life shouldn’t be here. There is no better chance of any other universe than this one, and everything that makes it special is only special because it involves us in some manner or another.
As a point of clarification before closing this little thought, I don’t hate our reality, in fact I find it very awesome, but I don’t need some unanswerable question to justify that feeling. Since we exist I see reason enough.
Talent in the World.
Sep 14th
I often wonder how many people are overlooked in the world. There are something like 7 billion people in the world, that is an absolutely astounding number. While we all generally have similar organic configurations the slight variations in each person entail that something amazing can be done by them.
But it troubles me that so many could die before their talents are discovered. So many people who can actually sing overlooked because they aren’t as attractive as “Generic High School Voice #4”, so many folks who could build grand buildings but don’t get the proper education, discover the cure for cancer but never get the proper science education, great writers who never flourish because of illiteracy.
7 Billion people in constant rotation. Amidst these folks are some of the greatest ideas of this generation and certainly many of the greatest ideas never thought in the past. Where once great ideas found persecution we now likely are amidst an equally devastating situation of being overlooked.
I wonder honestly how many great ideas and how many fantastic talents will die by the end of this month. How many of these people will even have close friends or families that knew of their abilities. Just how much have we been stunted technologically and culturally because of trivial issues that could be resolved with an ounce of common sense and maturity.
For me it is a startling thought, an unsettling pool bubbling at the base of my stomach. Even at the most emotionless level, just thinking of the lost data, it is shocking. At the emotional level it is a good bit heartbreaking, to think of all the lives that could have been great, how many flames merely flickered instead of burned.
I wonder if we’ll ever reach a point where people will all be granted the chance to do what we do best. Where we’ll credit those who truly earn what they get, where each death can be one of completion and comfort as opposed to another instance of lost opportunity and shattered dreams.
Why “Anti” is the ignorant approach to Abortion and the proper approach.
Aug 8th
Now I’ll admit that I’m not a fan of killing anyone. I find it highly unfortunate that we at times place ourselves in situations where people are killed or where it becomes difficult to support the sustained life of a certain person. It’s a shame and indeed is a global problem.
However on that note of killing there is another major problem with (at the very least) the US’s general take on problems. Militant cures to social problems has been an issue that has unfortunately reared its ugly head many times in the short History of the US. We often have situations that require a small amount of regulation and instead assault them with a violent fervor that is unnecessary and in the end entirely destructive and unhelpful.
While this might look like its obviously leading to any of our various failed “wars on X” I’m actually looking more so at Abortion. Abortion is an issue that we are told is very much on the forefront of people’s minds, I disagree, I do think though that it is largely blown out of proportion and discussion on it are wrought with misinformation and deception.
When looking at a problem that you see the first response should not be to outlaw it. Outlawing something does nothing to lessen the issue. The people who would have done it will still do it, the people who were unlikely to do it will not do it, and the people who would have never done it are still never going to have done it. What you do do however is create criminals for no better reason than to justify a crusade against differing life views or styles.
Abortion really should just be a last response to medical problems with mothers and the birth of their children. I recognize that it isn’t and that is what we’ll look at. First the answer to nearly all problems is education. Believe it or not if you educate people honestly and openly about a situation they will inevitably come to an educated conclusion about it. I’ll admit that doesn’t happen 100% of the time but nothing ever does that humans can verify.
So first you educate people fully about what? Well sexual education, abstinence education is an entirely unscientific system presented to kids for no better reason than to push religious beliefs on them. This is a terrible idea and it has been proven that it doesn’t work, how is it proven? Well unwanted pregnancies are a good example. I can educate people not to breath because it makes me feel better but it is their biological need to breath that will override my personal views.
Once you have educated people and they know of all the highly effective methods (as opposed to ones that only work in theory) to prevent pregnancy until they are prepared. After this we move onto the next issue. What if people take all the proper precautions and are still finding themselves in the situation of an unplanned pregnancy? Well we take after various wonderful places (such as Sweden) and we make it feasible for them to still be able to raise the child or at the very least we make the time between conception and birth as non traumatizing as it can be. Strong support for the expected mother and all the information necessary to be a strong parent. Or even explaining the possibility of Adoption (albeit that is for many just as tough a question as abortion, its not easy for the mother at all).
So we’ve accomplished two fold a fix. First we educate people openly and honestly treating them as they should be treated. Then for the people who may still get pregnant (a very small percentage assuming the first step) we treat them with respect and help give them all the available options. You will find that the amount of abortions in the country would indeed drop dramatically.
The stories about fun time weekend abortions are likely as strongly based in factual events as reefer madness. Don’t allow people to take extreme militant approaches to problems because it will never do anything but make it worse. Historically this has and likely will always be the case. I just hope that with my generation growing, more intelligent and grounded people will take control of governing bodies. Who knows.
4 Years of College: What have I learned?
Jul 11th
There have been many lessons over the last 4 years of college for me. I think the greatest of ironies is that little to none of it was intended by the college. The first thing that I learned is that much of what I earned from college was not from any of the curriculum.
If you are moving into Psychology you should expect something very disturbing. Namely the fact that you will be reading report after report of how to properly educate people in ways that will result in long term retention of information. However that information alone is obviously not disturbing, it is the fact that at no point will you ever experience this information in your courses. You will take spaced out massively cumulative exams and be taught in a very limited setup that is justified in the same manner every time “Well this is how I was taught.” You may not believe me yet, but just wait till you are in college. That was the same response I got from every Psychology professor and I imagine it’ll be the same for you.
Diversity is more important than education. This is a very important thing to remember when going to college. Now I’ve been told that I will never understand because I’m white, which in no way will perpetuate stereotypes, but my understanding of the importance of diversity is unimportant. At least at this college you will hear the word diversity more than you will ever pride over quality of education. Humorously enough when you DO hear about the quality of your education it will be explained with the word diversity. This press of grotesquely uneven importance is why you are likely meeting all sorts of college graduates that are no more informed about anything (let alone their Majors) than the average Joe. Your brain is astronomically less important than your lineage or the natural color of your skin (sorry fake tanners).
People do not go to college to become educated for the large part. More often than not when you ask folks why they are in college the answer is short “Job”. Because of this there is a much more prominent level of cheating. When your goal is education there is no logical reason to cheat, however when you goal is to get ahead it is almost a self fulfilling prophecy. I found it disheartening how many times people discussed in class how they were cheating with friends. What surprised me was not how prominent it was, that’s something my cynical self tends to assume, however it was how extraverted they were about it. It was absolutely nothing to be ashamed of. After all all that college is is a 20-40k dollar application to your career.
So when you are sitting there with someone who has an absolutely astounding GPA and everything they are saying sounds like utter ignorance you can thank college. While it would be unfair of me to make such a statement about all folks who do well in college or all college students I do think it would be equally unfair to act like College actually educates the vast majority of its students. At least–not intentionally.
On Episode 6 of Season 3 I believe that Penn and Teller said it far more succinctly than I have when they called College “Bullshit”.
PS. I also met tons of lovely folks and easily a half dozen amazing professors (the rest were great people but mediocre instructors). Not everything about college is negative however none of the positives really have to do with the entire point of college which is the problem. You are not a bad person for going to college but it in no way makes you better than a large percentage of folks you meet on the streets. They can get the same education by reading the books you’ve read in most cases and save tens of thousands of dollars.
A little homophobia kills a long way.
May 21st
While I imagine absolutely anyone reading this already knows I thought it was a fascinating tidbit to point out just how destructive petty prejudices can be. Case in point with the ever vocal homophobes in our country (which is beyond me, I don’t see what homosexuality has to do with anyone outside of those who are homosexual).
For whatever reason a vast amount of the Arabic translators in the US military are (or I suppose I should say were) homosexual. Prior to the 9/11 attack the US intelligence agencies had received plenty of non translated material that all told could have quite easily raised our chances of preventing the attack to levels that are almost disgusting. Indeed even now the US has mounds of Arabic material that has either been poorly translated or not translated at all because they got rid of all the men and women who were willing to put their lives on the line for a military so prejudice that it would kick them out for something as unrelated as their sexuality.
So what is the cost of Homophobia? 2,740. That’s how many people that died in the 9/11 terrorist attack, that’s almost three thousand people who likely all would have much as many talented people working in the military and intelligence agencies as possible. Not only this but the aftermath of the event has cost the lives of thousands more US soldiers, I’m pretty sure a few dozen reporters, and that doesn’t even count all the people who have died in Afghanistan and Iraq that aren’t related to these organizations that have died in the cross fire or shrapnel. Likewise the war itself could have been avoided (since its very hard to invade a nation if you aren’t already at war or have good reason to get going there).
So the next time you see two men holding hands, or two women hugging and kissing before going about their day, and you feel a sickness in your stomach try to remember that that feeling cost the lives of thousands of people and for what? Because of some dark disgusting misinformed preconceptions you have about homosexuals? I hate to sound overly passionate about the topic because it might take away from my point but I am hard pressed to understand.
People might think that prejudices are harmless when not directly hurting people, but in the end they cost the lives of far more people. It only takes a little nationally supported prejudice to cost the lives of tens of millions of people. Few people deserve to die and even that is questionable, in the end it is never the fault of one person for the actions of that one person, there are many variables that come into a strong collaborative image to make each and every one of us. However you can be certain in a country of dissension and judgmentalism, you will generate many many people who are destined for an early death.
Notes:
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0DE1DD1038F933A15752C0A9639C8B63 – 2005 Article on the topic, there are literally 10’s of thousands of them on the internet. Have an adventure and go google surfing, it’s an enlightening endeavor sometimes.
The Möbius Code (Part 5)
Apr 18th
[ Index ]
Part 1 – The Introduction
Part 2 – From Universe to Solar System
Part 3 – From Solar System to Earth
Part 4 – From Solar System to Earth
So time has passed and we have reached what we would now call Humans, Homo Sapiens, or any other clever naming agent you can grow to love. There is little to talk about here, not because much hasn’t happened, but because it is all easily accessible in the plethora of required history courses you will take in school.
One can hope we’ll survive ourselves. Assuming we do we have many millions of years to go before the current theorized end comes (the scientific one not all the religious ones that pop up annually). We are 
years away from what is the predicted end. That’s a much less clean way of saying 1 Googol years from now, or (arguably) even cleaner would be 1 with 1 hundred zeroes following it. It’s a fantastically long time that even I didn’t quite grasp till I saw it written out in this post.
Over this time we’ll have stars born and stars die. Black holes will grow and shrink (via a process championed by Stephen Hawking). Galaxies will soar away from one another with each passing day, planets will be consumed in the expansion of stars, the Earth will be scorched by the sun (all things left as they are). Eventually all matter will be stretched to an extreme and ever widening point where heat is no longer generated. This will leave an entire universe with absolutely no action which technically would also mean that time has ‘ended’.
I’m skeptical as I’ve stated before. We have not accounted for the excess gravity all over (the idea behind the possible existence of dark matter) and frankly there tends to be new information found with each passing year and certainly with each passing decade. It’s not to say we don’t have ages, 1 Google years is an amazing amount of time. So many wonderful (and unfortunately terrible) things can transpire between now and the purposed end.
My theory? While I’m hardly a better source than any astrophysicist I think that there is some currently unknown rubber band response to the expansion. At a certain point the stretch will get so extreme that everything will then rocket inwards. It seems quite reasonable to assume that this is what has happened the X amount of times in the past and will happen the X amount of times in the future. Of course there is also the possibility that the recoiling inwards is exponentially proportional to the expulsion outwards with each ‘bang’ and perhaps we are experiencing what will end up being the final shot. Who knows, it would be quite unfortunate but we still have far more time than needed for just about anything.
It is currently the state of all things mortal or otherwise to reach a state of inaction, it would be nice if we put more energy into prolonging and enhancing the time of action we each have. With each dollar we spend on death instead of life we are creating a large imbalance that could indeed snowball one day. I just hope it hasn’t already begun.
I’ve left out unimaginably large amounts of time, but that’s because who knows what will happen down to the number. The chaos effect makes estimating things highly difficult if not impossible. Neat stuff.